11/10/09 (B520) The report Deberkalleh (continued – 12 -) End – Continuation and conclusions
|
Complaint filed with the Attorney Ethiopia for the murder of old people and children to Guerrissa Afar and the surrounding communities (related article – 2005) (Link – 2005) |
End of report and conclusions Assumptions for a denouement
|
In Ethiopia
Before his nomination to the highest office, IOG needing the support of the Government of Ethiopia to achieve the goal he had set in for a very long time doing everything to pass the eyes of any observer as Pro-Ethiopian therefore supports advocacy for Ethiopian Djibouti.
For some time, share the decisions and positions it adopts, it appears more and more, qu’IOG estimates its period of « Ethiophilie » as complete, given that it has managed to gain absolute power in Djibouti.
In addition, it is clear that the reorientation of its foreign policy towards the Arabian peninsula that gives the certainty of now count on the support and financial strength of the Arab countries, make it no longer considers Ethiopia as a partner priority for the development of Djibouti and especially for its lasting power.
That is, before or after his inauguration, current President of Djibouti has never ceased to interfere and intervene in the internal politics of that country, either for security reasons or for reasons related to his ambition and the regional role that had long been convinced to play one day in the Horn of Africa. Thus, to promote and ensure proper execution of his ideas and plans on the sub-region, it adopted a number of principles and ideas he tries to follow as much son of directors to conception of the reality of countries in the region.
For the present case in that paragraph that is Ethiopia, there is no doubt that he is convinced that there is not one of Ethiopia but Ethiopia. For the individual who actually considers himself a connoisseur of the perfect country, Ethiopia is currently composed of several regions and several communities or peoples morals, races, cultures, religions and interests disputes and sometimes contradictory, there is no doubt in his personal vision in a more or less near future, there will be splits and partitions that must lead to the emergence of several other states on the ruins of what was once Ethiopia.
He therefore considers that there will by force of circumstance redistribution and a review of regional boundaries in the Horn of Africa as we know them today.
It is therefore important for him to prepare for this event, especially since, according to its design, this implosion of Ethiopia will certainly be the result of many social unrest, religious, racial or economic. Initiated and led by secessionist certainly supported by foreign interests.
However, a simple observation of his way to be with this country these days, allows everybody to realize, qu’IOG does more than prepare for this event. Indeed, sharing this view the future of this country with some Arab interests trying really promote it, he does not hesitate to provide support or associate itself directly to any group, organization or country that would tend toward this goal which is the destruction of Ethiopia.
Moreover, it is clear that it would be more advantageous to him, if Ethiopia had very serious internal problems with its various communities because this implies that the Government of this country away from the Somali problem qu’IOG can then manage his suit its interests.
Note that in general terms, I.O.G. to complete its interventionist policy in Ethiopia, never does nothing apparent which could then be criticized by the legal Government of that country. However, there is no doubt that he is with Somalia, the two areas where his political and economic relations are more important. Indeed, to achieve the goals that are his, he uses various Ethiopian communities in the handling and financially and materially supporting their aspirations and demands political or separatist, religious, tribal or racial.
The latter, which for some of them take violent forms, could express themselves better and more peaceful without the intervention pernicious driven by ambition exacerbated the man who really has no respect for these communities to it are only instruments to achieve his ends.
In fact we can very clearly say qu’IOG, research on happiness and well-being of nomadic Afars and Issas, making them handle (Djibouti-Ethiopia border) pre-positioned by its agents, to continue to s’ deal ..?
But unfortunately the facts prove that his men have worked well since the confrontation between the nomads of these two communities is happening in Ethiopia today (Gawanas, Adaitou, Gadametou, Endufo).
We are convinced that i. O.G. to achieve a situation like that, which should correspond to a part of its plans, has not only supported their tribal activisms but it also provided the material means involving his money and his agents in Ethiopia. On this level there should be aware qu’IOG is playing the last and only solution that remained. Indeed promote confrontation Afar and Issa allows him to achieve two goals at once.
First, it creates problems in Ethiopia by creating and promoting its low shenanigans armed conflict between two tribes who are developing certainly disturb the public order established by the Government of that country. The consequences of such a situation can only be harmful to it since both communities are all Ethiopians and are located in an economically important for Ethiopia.
Secondly, having held the Afars and the Issas and kill each other in ensuring action by small touches that this persists over time, IOG thereby ensuring an absence of opposition reaction to his regime from both communities. Such reasoning may seem strange and bizarre to anyone who does not know the mentality of these two ethnic groups, yet it is that which is necessary because for her membership in the tribe is larger and stronger than the borders between Djibouti and Ethiopia.
That is why the tyrant who Djibouti felt that a more serious threat to his regime set out to create the armed confrontation between the peoples majority illiterate and easily manipulated.
Given the adverse impact that may cause a situation like that in our objectives, the movement that we represent offers its services to the Ethiopian government to oppose manipulative maneuvers of this man and to participate in putting an end to the disastrous consequences of its action in these two communities.
On this point, saying the attack against Ethiopia also concerns us very closely, we encourage the authorities in that country following points to thwart the aims of this individual:
The imposition of the cessation of hostilities by the strong intervention of federal forces in Ethiopia.
The search for a peaceful settlement through discussion and negotiation and the intervention of the personalities of the two ethnic groups, this plan must take into account qu’IOG many more agents that are in balance than in the Issas Afars. It should therefore be taken to choose the tribal figures whose eyes are turned to Addis Ababa to Djibouti instead.
The intervention of the Ethiopian Afars and Issas to oppose in their respective communities to the interference of another country, especially because it is their responsibility. Otherwise the Federal Government should not hesitate to draw the necessary conclusions that most importantly, also for the authorities of Ethiopian origin Issa. If the latter is needed for itself and by the sensitivity of the attack IOG, care must be taken for now until the end of the crisis to replace Issa by Issa by an Afar Afar.
This will not make things worse and accountability people proud of their « Ethiopianité » instead of pre-positioned agents in the pay of IOG who support Hate tribalism.
Make hunting by conducting detailed including financial investigations (Dire Dawa, Addis Ababa) since it is by this means that agents IOG are most vulnerable. We must use the means which are ruining their own and these agents in Ethiopia, which are all largely dependent on financial systems than himself to participate in establishing.
Instilling awareness and the two communities (Much more in than the Issas Afars) on the advantage of being part of the family by Ethiopian development projects and other social economic progress.
In this vein, it should reflect qu’IOG always able to play on the frustrations that the different communities feel them forever to reach its goals and advance its plans.
That is why it is essential for the Federal Government neither of these two communities do not consider themselves harm by his handling of the crisis that oppose them. This is important because IOG, meanwhile, did not remain inactive in depth and works in secret the two ethnic groups (among more than Issas Afars) stagecoach operations disinformation on all decisions and actions of the Ethiopian Government and that for certain manipulations that would still result in further deaths.
Regarding community Issa much as Afar, is susceptible to various manipulations of this tyrant who has always cheated and used for personal purposes, be aware that it is now diminished by the absence a OUGASS headed (king and spiritual leader Issas), which we are sure, would have nullified the negative of these individual wrongdoing.
It is this feeling that disables all Issas (Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia) and qu’IOG maintained for several years in opposing the appointment of a new OUGASS (because the former OUGASS Hersi Hassan died in 1994), which not only allows him to impose the tyranny of tradition and to avoid any reaction their shares against him but also to handle some of them into shares of interference in the internal affairs of countries like Ethiopia.
Since little realizing that the Issas no longer share his handling of national and regional realities, IOG mounted a huge operation for handling the enthronement of a new OUGASS to Dire Dawa he appoint himself and therefore will not be there to defend its interests and also serve to strengthen his grip on the Issas he fears more than anything else.
The worst for I.O.G. that would combine the Afars Issas to counter both in its governance of Djibouti in its operations moved to Ethiopia.
In the same context of its interference in the internal affairs of Ethiopia, Djibouti dictator is not content just to use for better contrast, the two communities mentioned above. Destabilization he has led for some time against that country is also expressed in addition to the multiple economic pressures, also by a huge and multifaceted support given by the OLF and the secessionist the Ogaden Liberation Front.
In Djibouti, it is no secret that the regime not only grants political asylum to members of the OLF but it also participates actively support their political demands with respect to Ethiopia to create civil war in that country.
Managing and monitoring the record of this organization have been assigned for several years the Service of Documentation and Security of the Republic of Djibouti (SDS), it is the latter which is also responsible for hair, structure and direct assistance and support of state who are ants OLF and other splinter groups most of which is mere delinquency.
In addition to systematically facilitate the installation of the members of this front in Djibouti, the SDS strongly supports and works both in the national administration as with the indigenous population for the implementation and performance of various forms of aid that is supporting the government.
Indeed, the Djiboutian government not only promotes ownership and the indoctrination of the Oromo Community of Djibouti by the OLF but financially supports the latter organization, either directly or by organizing and encouraging the collection of « revolutionary tax » from that community workers (maids, caretakers house, day laborers).
To multiply the sources of financing, the SDS also involved with the financial authorities to promote the development of small and medium businesses to benefit the community and the preservation and development of businesses of certain major financial OLF.
Note that these are financial while to spend the eyes of Ethiopian leaders as people for whom their country’s interests come first. In general, there is no doubt that members of the OLF are more than tolerated in Djibouti since their various activities relating to the financing of their movement are often known and to everyone on the public square. So they organize cultural activities which aim to raise money as theatrical, with this permission and the blessing of city officials.
On quite another level, the Djiboutian regime does not hesitate to provide logistical support to the OLF and other small groups can lead to their political demands with respect to the Ethiopian Government.
V. Conclusions:
Arriving at the end of our analysis it is clear that a study of the sort that brings out so many black spots and unresolved situations must take a number of reflections and questions on the grim future that looms ever more on the horizon for not only the population of Djibouti, but also for the peoples and countries of the region.
In truth, regarding the nation of Djibouti, it is already at rock bottom but is still conscious enough to understand that she has to wait no benefit and no improvement in his present situation from the country’s leaders . Some might ask why then, this population is not given she can not afford to take her own destiny ..?
Unfortunately she can not do without outside help for the simple reason that knowing is framed by a plethora of security services, particularly law enforcement everywhere, people are not only afraid to express their political opinion between them but also to avoid state among themselves or publicly their discontent on how the country is governed.
Moreover and above all other considerations, there is the factor of khat, which participates actively, more than anything else to calm down and make amorphous and unresponsive population. This is the best weapon available I.O.G. to subject his people because most of the khat from Ethiopia.
However, we believe that given the high degree of frustration of people and given the state of moral misery, physical and financial conditions in which they are immersed, that he would be present to them an alternative strong enough to be perceived as a trigger for that attends a large popular movement refusal accompanied by a widespread phenomenon and unanimous rejection of the governance system of the present regime.
But part of our position as privileged observer of the situation in Djibouti, we are seeing more and more that all conditions, so we can be confronted in the near future to a social explosion spontaneous uncontrolled and therefore are fulfilled. When to know when and what form it will take place and above what would happen, nobody can tell. We can not, yet, that issuing a series of assumptions that can likely be formulated as follows:
Hypothesis 1:
A mass action uncoordinated population that originated from a phenomenon of frustration and popular rejection is learned first. This unorganized action can only lead to chaos and widespread killings of human beings and especially on a very difficult situation manageable by parties who have interests to defend or protect. And there is too much risk of balkanization and tribalization of the crisis as a whole in this case will drag on and lead to neighboring countries (Somaliland – Somalia-Ethiopia-Eritrea).
Hypothesis 2:
A mass action of the Djiboutian people pre-organized, structured and framed by the opposition. Such action will be successfully able to eliminate the forces of repression qu’IOG will immediately intervene. We must therefore prepare accordingly and ensure that security forces also participate in the popular movement. What indeed can not be that way here. Additionally, or is the opposition movement that could oversee and manage such a popular phenomenon?
We are skeptical because we are convinced that in this case there would be no popular consensus for any opposition party because they simply are not credible in the eyes of the people of Djibouti.
Hypothesis 3:
The feeling of discontent had settled into the military, organized action by the army or elements of the Army against the current regime is to remember. In this case, we must explore this hypothesis which brings a lot of questions because the way it is conducted, the results and outcomes will be different. It is therefore whether:
This will be done in the same time a popular explosion or not. ?
This action will she made the Djiboutian military only or will she encouraged, aided and assisted by the French forces in Djibouti … ? In this case, what will the reaction of the people ..? Elements loyal to I.O.G. and his personal army ..? And other foreign forces, U.S., French or German ..? In this case French interests will be safeguarded by their forces but which will safeguard the interests of Ethiopia and Djibouti people ..?
We believe that this assumption is likely since France has the means to carry out his term with almost all the Heads of the Djibouti army who have already acquired since forever.
It must however be noted that there is risk of Balkanization and tribalization of confrontation and even within the national army not to mention the population itself.
Hypothesis 4:
A personalized and targeted action that results in the sudden death of IOG taking into account a number of factors, we believe that technically this kind of operation can be done but would such a disruption and chaos as a national opportunity that its not really not necessary: indeed, despite his election illegal and dictatorial regime, IOG represents the idea of the state of Djibouti and that if he could disappear suddenly (Murder or death by natural disease or other …) without the people has been prepared for this idea, it would result in a situation where nobody controls the ins and the outs.
Indeed, with all the desires and political ambitions, ethnic, religious and economic Djibouti to await the right moment to speak with strength and each of its side, it would be unreasonable to expect that something organized and positive sort of action in this case.
Hypothesis 5 (Most likely):
A broad movement to reject the entire political system in force in Djibouti that would come from slogans issued by a federation of genuine opposition parties. On a first or need to reconcile the views of these parties outside the country, and the definition of a mode of action that will safeguard the vital interests of the nation and those of partner countries and friends of Djibouti.
This social phenomenon must be some corollary to Military (interior and exterior) that, if all is well managed will have a deterrent and recovery of all elements of the Djiboutian armed forces really don ‘ wait for it to join with opposition forces structured and where they can identify.
To conclude this point, it seems important to inform our readers of « Friends » as the dictator Djibouti will soon attempt to dress the totalitarianism that characterized his regime a camouflage and a coating of democracy » artificial. Indeed there is talk of a future political openness on his part that would be a liberalization of political parties in Djibouti. We believe that this is only a political maneuver circumstantial account with which it just saves time.
Indeed given the latest information reaching us, it is clear that his position is increasingly untenable in the face very large motion rejecting the man and his regime, which emanates from the people of this country.
In conclusion the interventionism and interference of various Djibouti despot on the countries of the region, this report did address, for the moment that the interference of the individual on Ethiopia, it is clear that we can already diagnose qu’IOG, alone, can not decide where to conduct subversive activities against Ethiopia there is no doubt that there is a bigger than his own for which the ‘weakening and destabilizing the country bring in more.
Currently known information suggest that the foreign will with which IOG was intimately associated comes only from Arab countries and extremist organizations, some of which uses as a weapon of propaganda and war, a radical and fundamental Islam.
It is therefore the responsibility of federal officials from Ethiopia, heads of Somaliland, free and democratic nations to find ways to oppose it, to continue to exist, Ethiopia and Somaliland and thereby bring into existence the Republic of Djibouti and its people ….
Drafter:
Abdallah Ahmed Deberkaleh